Oklahoma Tornado Potential Expected to Increase Second Half of May

May is usually when Oklahoma sees the most tornadoes each year, and models are already predicting Oklahoma's tornado potential to increase the second half of May. Oklahoma could see increased supercell production May 11-25.

Extreme Meteorologist Reed Timmer with Team Dominator posted to his official Facebook page on Sunday, May 4 the latest accumulated supercell parameters for May 11-18 and May 18-25. Both models indicate that Oklahoma could see increased supercell production during those time periods.

According to Timmer, active peak season for tornadoes is ahead for Oklahoma and most of the Great Plains.

Long range models predict uptick in severe weather for Oklahoma in May.

Meteorologist Peyton Galyean with Fox 25 posted on TikTok that short term models are predicting relatively calm weather for Oklahoma but the long range models are expecting an uptick in severe weather.

The long range models are expecting the parameters in Oklahoma during the second half of May will be conducive to severe weather and supercell production, which means the atmosphere will have all the ingredients for hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.

@wxwithpeyton May is no stranger to severe weather. While short term models seem relatively calm, longrange seems to have an uptick. Worth watching as we progress through the month. #weather #severeweather #may #severeweatherseason #tornado #texas #oklahoma #kansas #nebraska #illinois ♬ original sound - peyton⚡️

Oklahoma has seen 31 tornadoes so far in 2025.

As of Monday, May 5, Oklahoma has received 31 tornadoes. That's nearly half of what Oklahoma saw by this time in 2024. Last year, Oklahoma received 59 tornadoes by May 1. The entire month of May ended up racking up 54 tornadoes in total during a historic year for tornadoes in Oklahoma.

Last year Oklahoma saw some of its strongest tornadoes, including an EF4 in Osage and Washington counties, an EF3 in Rogers and Mayes Counties and another EF3 in Delaware County.

So far in 2025, Oklahoma has seen 15 tornadoes in March and 16 in April - the state has yet to record any for May. Most of the tornadoes Oklahoma has received in 2025 were 19 EF1 tornadoes, the others include four EFU/EF?, six EF0 and two EF2.

The biggest tornado outbreak of 2025 so far occurred on March 4, which saw 14 tornadoes in one day. This outbreak struck the town of Ada, Oklahoma, multiple times and caused significant damage to most of the town.

@weatherchannel An EF1 twister tore through Ada, Oklahoma, early Tuesday morning, damaging homes and displacing two dozen families. #TheWeatherChannel #fyp #weathertok #weatherchannel #forecast #tornadoes #stormchasing #severeweather #storms #tornadoseason ♬ original sound - The Weather Channel