Oklahoma Has Two Very Different Winter Forecasts

We’ve spent most of the summer trying to figure out how to escape the heat, and now somebody has decided it’s time to start talking about snow.

That feels a little premature when the thermometer is still in the triple digits, but here we are. The first extended winter forecasts for 2026-2027 are starting to roll out, and they don’t exactly agree on what Oklahoma is in for.

One of the big forecasts is calling for a fairly mild and dry winter across Oklahoma. The other is looking at a much wetter and stormier setup across the southern Plains.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac Predicts a Mild, Dry Winter

The Old Farmer’s Almanac is leaning toward a warmer and drier winter for Oklahoma and Texas, with snowfall around normal. That doesn't exactly sound like the recipe for a winter buried under three feet of snow.

The "Other" Farmers’ Almanac Sees a Wetter Winter

Then you have the Farmers’ Almanac looking at the same general setup and seeing a much more active southern storm track, with wetter-than-normal conditions stretching across the Southwest and into Texas and the South.

The National Weather Service is somewhere in that conversation too. Its long-range outlook is favoring warmer-than-normal or near-normal temperatures across much of the country, while also leaning wetter across much of the southern and central United States.

So we have a little disagreement over the details, which is on-brand and probably the most "Oklahoma" thing about this forecast.

The reason I find this winter interesting isn't because somebody is predicting a massive snowstorm. It's because we're heading into an El Niño winter, and Oklahoma has a history of getting some pretty memorable weather when the Pacific heats up.

El Niño doesn't automatically mean Oklahoma gets hammered with snow and ice. It's not that simple, but it can set up a stormier season for us while allowing some extremely cold air to occasionally come crashing south.

You can have a winter that is generally mild and still get absolutely hammered by one or two snowstorms. At least, historically, we've seen that trend before. Oklahoma can go from 65 degrees and sunny to everybody standing in the grocery store staring at empty milk cases in the span of a few hours.

One forecast says mild and dry. Another says mild and wet. Neither one is really promising us a winter where we're wearing parkas every day from Thanksgiving through Valentine's Day... But neither one is telling us to put the snow shovel in the garage sale pile, either.

That's especially worth remembering with a strong El Niño developing. NOAA says this could be an unusually strong event, and some of the strongest El Niño winters have produced some pretty impressive and record-setting snowstorms across the Sooner State before.

If I were hedging bets, it'll probably be surprisingly comfortable over the next six months with a handful of brutally cold days when winter comes down out of the arctic.

If you're wondering which forecast will ultimately be right, nobody knows. The Almanacs don't know, NOAA doesn't know, the NWS doesn't know... Everybody is guessing, and it's unfair to hold any of them accountable for predicting the future incorrectly. It's not a science, it's meteorological alchemy.

Will we get a winter? Yes. Of course. It may only be two weeks long, but it'll show up eventually.

Will winter be stormy like an endless spring? That's on the table too. Just as last year we shared an endless fall. Maybe we get both, or even get it all. Winter, fall, spring, and summer in the roughly 90 days that is winter. That would be the most Oklahoma outcome imaginable, but still pretty on-brand with our wild weather.