There’s A Lot Of Snow In The Oklahoma Long Range Forecast

In a very weird and extraordinarily bold prediction, Farmer's Almanac is predicting plenty of snow, freezing temperatures, and "squally" winds across Oklahoma for the rest of the month.

Shenanigans.

Most outlets like to create content with The Almanac's predictions because they're usually unseasonably bold in that way. It's the same thing that KOCO meteorologist does on Twitter... They toss out some wildly unsubstantiated forecast and people spread it far and wide in utter disbelief such wild weather could happen.

That's exactly how it's supposed to work too. You share the thing, it gets more views, they sell more ads, they make more money... The way of the world these days.

By the time the wild forecast is supposed to come to fruition, things are generally back to normal and everyone has moved on from those wild predictions in lieu of just stating the obvious about the current conditions outside, and everyone forgets until next time...

It's a crazy cycle and Farmer's Almanac is back on the bike this month.

Yep, those are some bold predictions about the weather... In contrast, here is the current long-term forecast for Lawton from the National Weather Service.

A little windy, but otherwise some really nice and normal January weather.

So why the call for so much snow from Farmer's Almanac?

There's an inherent problem with how FA operates. They compile data from the past in order to predict the future, but that's not how nature works. You can't predict what will happen tomorrow based on what happened a year ago. It just doesn't work like that.

Case and point... In 2017, we experienced a record February with daily highs in the 90s. In 2018 and 2019, those February highs stayed in the 70s and 80s. When FA predicted a similar warm start to 2020, we had a weeks-long winter storm that produced new record cold temps, wind chills, and snowfall across most of the region.

Since the trend is to use the past to predict the future, the prediction was brutally cold and deep snow for 2021... That year, while we had plenty of winter weather, most storms were here for a day or two and then back to our normal 50s and 60s weather.

You can't predict the future with the past... one key detail Back to the Future always got wrong, but you can't sell internet ads by just sharing level-headed accurate information I suppose. Everybody needs their gimmick.